An asteroid that measures up to 300 feet across could smack into Earth in 2032, and while NASA says the chances of a collision are “extremely low,” the probability has been increasing since the space rock was discovered weeks ago.
NASA said last week that there is currently a 2.3% (or 1 in 43) chance that the asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, will hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. While still tiny, that probability nearly doubled from the agency’s initial estimate of 1.2% in late January.
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At that time, that “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”
The agency is monitoring the asteroid’s orbit and said that the object’s “impact hazard” could be ruled out eventually. But in a , the agency said it is “also possible its impact probability will continue to rise” as more details become clear.
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NASA estimates that the asteroid measures between 130 feet and 300 feet across. In the unlikely event that it did hit Earth, the asteroid would likely “impact at a high velocity” of roughly 38,000 mph, at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
A space rock of that size would likely cause local damage, but not threaten the entire planet or humanity, as might be the case if a much larger asteroid was on a collision course with Earth.
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The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile on Dec. 27, 2024. Since then, researchers have been studying the space rock using ground-based telescopes.
NASA said the asteroid will continue to be visible to ground-based observatories through April. After that, the space rock will be too faint to see until around June 2028.
The agency’s James Webb Space Telescope will train its eyes on the asteroid in March to better assess its size, according to NASA.
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