Texas power grid faces early surge in demand, could break spring records

The Texas power grid is under close watch on Wednesday as ERCOT forecasts a sharp spike in electricity demand — a surge strong enough to potentially break springtime records.

According to the grid operator, it's unusual to see such high power usage this early in the year. But Wednesday's sudden heat wave sweeping across much of the state is driving electricity demand higher than usual for May.

, the grid operator predicts demand could reach 81,000 megawatts by 5 p.m. Wednesday — far surpassing the previous May record of 77,000 megawatts set just last year. Earlier this week, ERCOT had projected an even higher peak of 84,216 megawatts for today. For perspective, the all-time state power demand record of 85,435 megawatts was set during extreme summer heat in August 2023.

Despite the high demand, experts say Texans shouldn’t be alarmed.

"I'd say it's almost business as usual," said David Kinchen, and a leading state energy expert. “We definitely get feast or famine on weather for either temperatures, or even rain and sun in Texas. It's definitely earlier in the year than I'm used to, but it's not a huge issue right now.”

ERCOT has not issued an emergency alert or asked consumers to conserve. The grid is holding up, but we are seeing a tight margin between supply and demand today.

What’s helping the state keep the lights on is the growing contribution of renewable energy. ERCOT expects solar and wind power to be the saving grace today, even with some coal and natural gas plants currently offline for routine maintenance.

Kinchen explained that spring is typically the “shoulder season” when power generation crews schedule maintenance — a practice that can complicate unexpected early heatwaves like this one.

"A lot of the fleet tries to do their maintenance in these shoulder periods — that means not during the peak of summer or winter,” he said. “We’re getting to the end of that window, but there is going to be some of the thermal fleet that maybe isn’t all the way done with their maintenance season yet. So that’s why I don’t love the last couple weeks of May, because maybe the fleets are not totally recovered yet.”

Kinchen said he expects energy demand to ease later Wednesday evening thanks to recent rainfall that’s kept vegetation and soil moist — a natural cooling aid.

Looking ahead, he’s advising Texans to prepare for a hotter-than-average summer, though he's hopeful the season won't be unusually dry.

“It doesn’t mean the hottest summer, but it definitely will be warm,” Kinchen said. “I’m hoping it won’t be drier than normal, because that also really feeds into the skyrocketing temperatures. I think I've seen some forecasts suggesting near normal amounts of moisture, which would be great.”

One positive trend this summer could be Texas’s solar energy output. Kinchen believes the state could break records in solar production in the coming months, helping meet demand during the hottest parts of the day.

He also urges consumers to stay mindful of their energy usage, especially as bills could spike along with the temperatures.

“The way I always look at it is, you can try to control the price by being on a competitive plan, or you can try to control your usage,” he said. “Your A/C is your biggest load — so you can set the thermostat higher and save money, but it depends on how much comfort you're willing to give up for those savings.”

Meanwhile, as Texans crank up the air conditioning, state lawmakers are also taking action. A new proposal — — is moving through a House committee on Wednesday.

The bill aims to protect Texas’s power grid in the long term by placing restrictions on how large businesses, such as data centers and oil and gas operations, tap into the system.

Lawmakers warn that demand from these industries could double the state’s energy needs by 2030.

Senate Bill 6 has already passed the Senate and now faces debate in the House.